Influenza in the Ukraine: Predictable Virulence or Conspiracy Theory?

According to Russian news agency RIANOVSTI, the death toll from flu in the Ukraine has reached 354 since the beginning of October. At least 78,000 people have been hospitalized and 300 are still in intensive care.  All educational establishments in the capital Kiev have been closed.  The epidemic threatens to destabilize the political situation in advance of elections. 

The Ukraine has a population of almost 52 million people.  The US has a population of 308 million people, of which an estimated 3900 people have died from H1N1 or subsequent complications or bacterial infections from April to October 17.  Calculated on a death-rate-per-month basis, this makes the epidemic in the Ukraine more than twice as deadly as the epidemic in the United States.  Why should this be?  Is there a new strain in the Ukraine?  Are people less healthy to start with in the Ukraine?  Is the higher mortality rate the result of a poorly integrated health system with few resources?

According to a Ukrainian native in the US, one perception of the school closures in the Ukraine is that it is a stunt to save on the cost of heating oil. 

There is a fantastical explanation circulating on the internet that strains credibility beyond the breaking point: that the outbreak is the result of intentional contamination of vaccine supplied by Baxter laboratories in the Ukraine with live H5N1 (bird flu) influenza.  This totally unsupported allegation is pieced together by believers after reports that Baxter did in fact supply contaminated vaccine in error to several European laboratories this past spring, and after alleged predictions by one Joseph Moshe this past summer to a radio host that a biological weapon would be released in the Ukraine at the end of October by Baxter.  Shortly after Moshe's allegations, he was apprehended by police and federal agents after a prolonged standoff, in what has been called the Westwood Standoff, after apparent threats against the White House. 

The answers we should look for to dispel this theory, which has the trappings of wing-nut conspiracy theory, but also the trappings of The Big Lie, might be addressed by the following questions: Did Ukrainian persons who received the Baxter influenza virus vaccine have a higher rate of infection or death compared to Ukrainian persons who received a different vaccine or no vaccine? 

A more likely explanation: animal studies suggest that when influenza passes through an unhealthy host, it becomes more virulent for the next host.  People in the Ukraine have a much lower life expectancy than in Western countries (61 men 73 women). 

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Arieal
Posts: 1

get your facts straight
Reply #1 on : Fri November 20, 2009, 14:02:20

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I was listening to Dr. Ott's show in August when Dr. Moshe called into his show and mentioned that a bio weapon was going to be unleashed on the Ukraine in the coming months. This is fact, not conspiracy.

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